by Christian Rei P. Bautista and Kate Ashley H. Espeleta

2 June  2021 –  On May 29, 2021, the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies (PACS) hosted a webinar on the topic of “Perspectives on China-South Asian Relations” via Zoom from 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. PACS invited Mr. Don McLain Gill — a resident fellow at the International Development and Security Cooperation (IDSC), and Dr. Swaran Singh — Chair and Professor at the Centre for International Politics, Organisation, and Disarmament (CIPOD). Mr. Erwin Dizon — the Board Director and Head of the PACS Events Committee — hosted the webinar. 

China adopts a multidimensional strategy with its relations towards different states and regions. Delving on China’s geopolitical engagement in South Asia and its implications for India, PACS invited scholars to share their expertise regarding the matter.

China-South Asian Relations

China and South Asia, specifically India, have had limited interactions in the past. The Sinic state focused on its interactions with states in East Asia while the Indic state concentrated on Southern Asia. These extremely restricted interactions were created for the trade of precious commodities.  Over the years, this limited exchange of communication between China and South Asian countries broadened and produced fruitful relations that are still relevant today. 

In the present day, India and China have expanded their understanding of neighboring states and developed cognizance of the existence of one another. There have been instances where India’s and China’s circles of life overlap, and to that Dr. Swaran Singh posits that “there could be misunderstandings, mistrust, (and) there could also be friendships but the truth is that neither South Asia nor China can overlook each other.” This provides an overview of how the actions of either of the two have a significant impact on the other (Constant consciousness). 

Dr. Swaran Singh outlined the factors that shape the relationship between China and South Asia. Enumerated were: (1)  historical civilizational ties– significant past events links both, (2) connections to Buddhism– Buddhism was born in India and subsequently spread to China, making it the “world’s largest state of Buddhist people.” The shared liberation struggle from the Western colonization, as well as the diaspora from both China and South Asia have contributed to their bond. Furthermore, the most influential factor that has shaped the ties between the two is the post-colonial legacy of the post-liberation period and Cold War dynamics. Moreover, shared experiences in the past have created the bond that they have today.

China-South Asian Trade (1994-2004)

Exploring other aspects, Dr. Swaran Singh stated that trade plays a significant role in shaping the relationship between China and South Asia. In the 1990s, Pakistan was China’s biggest economic partner in the South Asian region, but India surpassed it over the course of a decade. It is clear  that trade and investments are becoming increasingly important in the Indo-China Region, as evidenced by a series of economic phenomena involving China participating in activities carried out by South Asian states. South Asian countries, specifically India and Pakistan, have reciprocated by joining multilateral cooperation alongside China. Examples of said economic affairs are: China has become an observer in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 2005, and India and Pakistan joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2008, resulting in the regional and global expansion of ties between China and South Asia. Furthermore, the most visible economic link between China and South Asia is China’s Belt and Road Initiative. According to Dr. Swaran Singh, “South Asia, despite all the hiccups, is really the most significant part of China’s imaginations.” 

China’s Geopolitical Engagement in South Asia

Mr. Don McLain Gill opened up about the strategic significance of South Asia’s geographical location for trade, commerce, and power projection during his discussion. China’s rise and entry into South Asia have changed the geopolitical dynamics of the region, causing a shift in the global distribution of power. This shift in the international balance of power has created uncertainty and a variety of reactions from regional states. Recognizing the nature of the international system as being anarchic, Mr. Gill emphasized that “systemic factors are not the only determinants of state behavior, especially among great powers or potential great powers.” He further highlighted that understanding how states operate requires a balance of power and state perception.

According to Mr. Gill, the ongoing international shift has “motivated China to play a more proactive role in the affairs of the Indian Ocean region.” This is in contrast to reports from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), which tries to put to rest the notion of China’s role as a direct threat to the region and the status quo power of the region, India.

In reference to the Bluebook Policy, Mr. Gill expanded on India’s desire to maintain the status quo in the Western Pacific, stating that the country “merely wishes to complement it through stronger engagements with the countries in that region.” Although there has been an increase of presence from extra-regional powers that weave through the region’s waters, India has demonstrated its tolerance and acceptance for “like minded-states that share common ideologies” such as Japan, the United States, and Australia. This reflects India’s national interest and foreign policy, which has evolved in terms of establishing its ties for cooperation and stability.

Mapping out the Sino-Indian Power Competition

China and India’s relationship has not always been competitive; rather, there are and have been areas where they have worked together to advance mutual interests. Mapping out the trend of the relationship of these two powers, Mr. Gill stressed that at present, “we are entering one of the lowest points of the India-China strategic relations,” in contrast to their ties from the 1940s to the 1950s, when they demonstrated a degree of peaceful coexistence and a suitable amount of compromise. However, tensions on the border erupted in the late 1950s, causing anxiety and distress.

The remedies to these uncertainties were in the form of state visits and diplomatic agreements, such as the 1993 Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility and the 1996 Agreement on Confidence-Building Measures. However, territorial conflict persisted. Moreover, anxieties were not quickly dispelled as a result of increased Chinese military movement along the border and continuous nuclear weapon development by both states. The confluence of these factors has played a significant role in the region’s complicated dynamics and the fragile relationship between the two powers.

Data show that, despite China and India’s unstable strategic relationship over the years, their economic ties have grown consistently. Exploring China and India’s solid economic commitment as a potential area of cooperation has perplexed theorists who believe that economic interdependence discourages strategic conflict. Mr. Gill continued by quoting Hans Morgenthau and stating that the political sphere is distinct from the economic and socio-cultural spheres. This framework can be used to analyze the case of these two countries’ relationship, where there is both strategic competition and robust economic transactions..

Impact of Pandemic Politics

“Geography is becoming history,” according to Dr. Swaran Singh. Historically, geography dominated the study of our lives, but in modern times, we are more connected in the virtual world than the physical world. In addition, during the pandemic, the parallelism between the actions of China and India is observable. Both countries produce a large number of vaccines and have used them to increase their influence through vaccine diplomacy. Amid the continuing pandemic, China’s economic growth has not impeded its expansion of economic relations with South Asia.. 

In his closing statement, Dr. Swaran Singh stated that regardless of an existing conflict, cooperation persists on areas and issues that both China and India can converge on. These two key players are the largest providers of health workers, medicines, etc., and they should come to terms and maximize their strengths through better coordination. There are platforms available to make this possible, and using them would yield results that would benefit both of them on a global and regional level.

This PACS webinar was held through Zoom and attended by participants from different academic and business organizations.

(Missed the webinar? Watched the recorded video here:(https://www.facebook.com/1241232755956809/videos/496136451726726)